In Case You Were Wondering
"I'm probably the only candidate who, having won the nomination, can actually redraw the political map," Obama said at the time. "I guarantee you African-American turnout, if I'm the nominee, goes up 30% around the country, minimum. Young people's percentage of the vote goes up 25-30%." - more here
Me, I'm not convinced, particularly of the youth vote. I haven't seen the numbers yet, but I'm guessing the "surge" in Iowa was 12-15% tops. Still a significant number but enough? Meh, I don't know.
What I do know is that we've been waiting for the "youth" to "get fired up" since about forever. If they didn't against Nixon in '68 and '72 why would they now when they've got TiVo and Halo?
And who says the youth vote is all that redeeming anyway? As Unca Hunter said, the youth can be just as gullible and greedy as their seniors (emphasis mine):
If the current polls are reliable... Nixon will be re-elected by a huge majority of Americans who feel he is not only more honest and more trustworthy than George McGovern, but also more likely to end the war in Vietnam. The polls also indicate that Nixon will get a comfortable majority of the Youth Vote. And that he might carry all fifty states... This may be the year when we finally come face to face with ourselves; finally just lay back and say it — that we are really just a nation of 220 million used car salesmen with all the money we need to buy guns, and no qualms at all about killing anybody else in the world who tries to make us uncomfortable. - "September," from FEAR AND LOATHING ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL '72 (Warner Books, 1973), pp 413–414, Hunter S. Thompson
I miss Unca Hunter.
And "The Black Vote", wellll, The Black Vote doesn't matter much until we're in the general election anyway, IMHO. And it's been so cherry picked by the "Faith Based (use Jesus' name and we'll fall for anything) Initiatives" as to be rendered practically irrelevant even then. This is of course, assuming the old political model of black political power as centered in the black church. The Internet changes things.
How much remains to be seen.
Comments
As the race continues and the number crunching and postulating goes on and on, the dance, the theories and unfortunately the outcomes all remain the same. I wholly agree with you that the numbers don't really mean much until the general election...but I'll admit last night, I was excited again. Not because my candidate is black (though of course this is a historical significance that can't be ignored)...but because I was excited about someone, again.
I'm gonna choose to sit with the comfort for just a bit longer before I toss aside my hope that perhaps something will be different. I'm not ready to let go of that. Perhaps its the kid in me, but I still have a desire to believe in something. What scares me most is not the potential for the same old nonsense to make this election as ineffectual as elections past...but a growing belief that it can never be otherwise.
last i heard, The Black Vote was voting for Hilary. I'm not sure how I feel about this. my vote for Hilary was pretty much a done deal, for a bunch of reasons that i'm not willing to defend tonight.
however, the youth, they are for Obama. he's inspired kids too young to vote to call the kids who are old enough to encourage support for him. why? because the kids are not as apathetic as they seem. they are very worried and they have a sense of civic responsibility. and they have no faith in the government. nor should they. i have no faith in the government.
i was not ready to vote for obama. i know very little about him (aside from the fact that he's a great speaker) and worry about putting someone with so little experience in charge.
and yet
those asshats with all the experience aren't doing a bit of good. in fact they're doing the opposite of good. i don't think that hilary is one of them, but i don't know for sure. i don't think that edwards is one of them but i also don't think he has a snowball's chance of winning.
last night i watched obama's acceptance speach and for the first time i felt the hope that i think my mother felt when she watched kennedy.
i don't know if it means anything, but i'm going to start paying attention now.
I finally spun up Obama's victory speech form last night. I collapsed the screen as I wanted to focus on the words instead of the man. Besides my video reception was jumpy (blame my '03 vintage iBook). A pretty perfunctory "thank you speech" I thought until near the end.
Does he walk on water too?
And then I read this bit about Obama's other superpowers. Kind of debunks the position that his "rock star" appeal is his only appeal.
you have every right to be skeptical - i am too. but i am also allowing myself to be a tiny bit hopeful.
i am so very worried about the outcome of this election. the idea that any of the republicans could win, huckabee with his "I let god be my guide" to Mitt's "I am not a polygamist" to Rudy's "911!" and Fred Thompson's "Ronnie was an actor, I'm an actor too!" make me doubt we can ever find our place back in the world again.